| The evaluation of different climate models' projections transferred to a local scale is the basis for a probabilistic impact assessment of climate change taking place in many regions of the world. We propose an original evaluation of the climate models through a weather typing approach. For several models from the IPCC models database we define weather types for a training period. Those are then compared to a) weather types obtained from future simulations from the same models and b) to weather types obtained in the same manner for reanalyses (NCEP/ERA40) for the same time period. On the one hand such an analysis provides means to test the validity of the assumption of weather patterns remaining constant between present and future climate (a). On the other hand the potential for reproducing reanalysis patterns in present climate is a way to validate climate models and can be quantified and compared (b). |
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