Christophe Deroulers
signals
Sunday, October 22
| 19:00 | Welcome Banquet at the cafeteria |
Monday, October 23
| 08:00 - 09:50 | Registration |
| 09:30 - 09:50 | Coffee Break |
| 09:50 - 10:00 | Opening |
| Organizers | |
| 10:00 - 12:00 | Richard S. Ellis |
| Part I: The Theory of large deviations and applications to statistical mechanics | |
| 12:00 | Lunch Break |
| 14:00 - 15:30 | Reinhard Mahnke |
| Stochastic Processes I: Introduction, Basic equations (SDE, ME, FPE), First passage time distribution, Breakdown phenomena | |
| 15:30 - 16:00 | Coffee Break |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
Tuesday, October 24
| 09:30 - 10:00 | Coffee Break |
| 10:00 - 12:00 | Richard S. Ellis |
| Part II: The Theory of large deviations and applications to statistical mechanics | |
| 12:00 | Lunch Break |
| 14:00 - 15:30 | Reinhard Mahnke |
| Stochastic Processes II: Drift-diffusion process with absorbing boundary, Application to traffic breakdown, Summary | |
| 15:30 - 16:00 | Coffee Break |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
Wednesday, October 25
| 09:30 - 10:00 | Coffee Break |
| 10:00 - 12:00 | Richard S. Ellis |
| Part III: The Theory of large deviations and applications to statistical mechanics | |
| 12:00 | Lunch Break |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break |
| 15:30 - 17:00 | Joachim Peinke |
| Part I: Turbulence | |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
| 19:00 - 20:00 | Short talks by participants |
Thursday, October 26
| 09:30 - 10:00 | Coffee Break |
| 10:00 - 11:30 | Joachim Peinke |
| Part II: Turbulence | |
| 11:30 | Group Photo |
| 12:00 | Lunch Break |
| 13:30 - 15:00 | Joachim Peinke |
| Part III: Turbulence | |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break |
| 19:00 | Public evening lecture (in German) |
| Michael Lehning | |
| Vorhersage von extremen Naturereignissen und Umgang mit dem Risiko | |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
Friday, October 27
| 09:30 - 10:00 | Coffee Break |
| 10:00 - 12:00 | Richard S. Ellis |
| Part IV: The Theory of large deviations and applications to statistical mechanics | |
| 12:00 | Lunch Break |
| 14:00 - 15:00 | Michael Ghil |
| Extreme events in the geosciences: Climate shifts, earthquakes and their economic impacts | |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break |
| 15:30 - 16:30 | Michael Lehning |
| Spatial extremes and natural hazards prediction | |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
Sunday, October 29
| 18:00 | Registration |
| 19:00 | Welcome Banquet at the cafeteria |
Monday, October 30
| 09:00 - 09:20 | Opening |
| Frank Jülicher and Organizers | |
| 09:20 - 10:00 | Leonid Bogachev |
| Extreme value theory for random exponentials | |
| 10:00 - 10:40 | Peter Talkner |
| Transition times and synchronization in time dependent driven bistable systems | |
| 10:40 - 11:10 | Coffee Break |
| 11:10 - 11:50 | Peter Imkeller |
| Transitions between meta-stable states induced by Levy noise | |
| 11:50 - 12:30 | Igor Sokolov |
| Extreme events and anomalous diffusion | |
| 12:30 - 12:50 | Christophe Deroulers |
| Large deviations of stochastic processes and lifetime of metastable states in high space dimensions | |
| 12:50 | Lunch Break |
| 14:30 - 15:10 | Armin Bunde |
| Extreme Events in Long-Term correlated records | |
| 15:10 - 15:50 | Cecilia Pennetta |
| Distribution of return intervals of extreme values in time series with intermediate-term correlations | |
| 15:50 - 16:10 | Piero Olla |
| Return times for Gaussian processes with power-law scaling | |
| 16:10 - 16:40 | Coffee Break |
| 16:40 - 17:20 | Josef Steinebach |
| Detecting changes in time series | |
| 17:20 - 17:40 | Salvatore Micciche |
| Characterization of power-law correlated stationary markovian stochastic processes in terms of multiscale ones | |
| 17:40 - 18:00 | Nicholas Moloney |
| Extreme value statistics in signals |
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| 18:30 | Dinner |
| 20:00 | Poster Session with wine |
Tuesday, October 31
| 09:00 - 09:40 | John Casti |
| Socionomics and the science of surprise | |
| 09:40 - 10:20 | Lenny Smith |
| What is a climate extreme? And how might it change? | |
| 10:20 - 10:40 | Ferdinando Semboloni |
| The multi-agent simulation of the extreme events (earthquake, strafing, and (maybe) flooding) in the urban dynamics | |
| 10:40 - 11:10 | Coffee Break |
| 11:10 - 11:50 | Joachim Peinke |
| Extreme events in wind fields and their consequences for the wind energy and the electric network | |
| 11:50 - 12:10 | Petra Friederichs |
| Extreme precipitation events: Analysis and forecasting | |
| 12:10 - 12:30 | Sarah Hallerberg |
| When are extreme events the better predictable the more extreme they are? | |
| 12:30 - 12:50 | Henning Rust |
| Confidence intervals for flood return level estimates using a bootstrap approach | |
| 12:50 | Lunch Break |
| 14:30 - 15:10 | Kai Nagel |
| Network breakdown in traffic simulations | |
| 15:10 - 15:30 | Reinhard Mahnke |
| Traffic Breakdowns as extreme event | |
| 15:30 - 15:50 | Jevgenijs Kaupuzs |
| Zero-range model with application in traffic | |
| 15:50 - 16:10 | Brunello Tirozzi |
| Perturbative expansion applied to the run-up problem | |
| 16:10 - 16:40 | Coffee Break |
| 16:40 - 17:20 | Matteo Marsili |
| Lessons from market crashes and instabilities | |
| 17:20 - 18:00 | Rosario Mantegna |
| Extreme events in correlation based clustering procedures | |
| 18:30 | Dinner |
Wednesday, November 1
| 09:00 - 09:40 | Dirk Helbing |
| Crowd turbulence: The physics of crowd disasters | |
| 09:40 - 10:20 | Didier Sornette |
| Generic Multifractality in Exponentials of Long Memory Processes: A mechanism for extreme events based on long-range correlations and applications to finance, material rupture and earthquakes | |
| 10:20 - 10:40 | Imre Janosi |
| Pitfalls of extreme value statistics on global daily temperature records | |
| 10:40 - 11:10 | Group Photo and Coffee Break |
| 11:10 - 11:50 | Stefan Hergarten |
| Extreme events in earth sciences | |
| 11:50 - 12:10 | Stephen Miller |
| The dynamical influence of fluids in the earthquake process: From Gutenberg-Richter to Omori's Law | |
| 12:10 - 12:30 | Fernando Manuel Ramos |
| Extreme event dynamics in methane ebullition fluxes from tropical reservoirs | |
| 12:30 - 12:50 | Sandra Dias |
| Max-semistable laws - properties and statistical inference | |
| 12:50 | Lunch Break |
| 14:30 - 15:10 | Klaus Lehnertz |
| Epilepsy: Extreme events in the human brain | |
| 15:10 - 15:30 | Danuta Makowiec |
| Multifractality of heart rate signal | |
| 15:30 - 16:10 | Juval Portugali |
| Self-organized integration and disintegration | |
| 16:10 - 16:40 | Coffee Break |
| 16:40 - 17:20 | Sorin Tanase-Nicola |
| Fluctuations in biochemical networks | |
| 17:20 - 18:00 | Sergey Dobrokhotov |
| Localized asymptotic solutions and tsunami waves | |
| 18:30 | Conference Dinner in the restaurant "Julius Kost" |
Thursday, November 2
| 09:00 - 09:40 | Peter Holdsworth |
| Global fluctuations in correlated systems and extreme value statistics | |
| 09:40 - 10:20 | Zoltan Racz |
| Finite-size scaling functions in extreme statistics | |
| 10:20 - 10:40 | Nico Stollenwerk |
| River scaling analysis and the BHP universality hypothesis | |
| 10:40 - 11:10 | Coffee Break |
| 11:10 - 11:50 | Gunter Schütz |
| Large current fluctuations in the zero-range process | |
| 11:50 - 12:10 | Rosemary Harris |
| Large deviations, fluctuation theorems and the Zero-Range process | |
| 12:10 - 12:30 | Closing remarks |
| Organizers | |
| 12:30 | Lunch |
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