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Monday, November 10
Tuesday, November 11
Wednesday, November 12
Thursday, November 13
Friday, November 14
Monday, November 10 | |
starting 08:30 | Registration |
09:30 - 10:00 | Opening |
10:00 - 10:45 | Michael Ghil (ENS Paris & University of California, Los Angeles) |
Beyond statistics: Modeling the dynamics of extreme events | |
10:45 - 11:15 | Coffee break |
11:15 - 12:00 | Sidney Redner (Boston University) |
The best, the hottest, and the luckiest: A statistical tale of extremes | |
12:00 - 12:30 | Ulrike Feudel (University Oldenburg) |
Resilience of ecological systems | |
12:30 - 12:50 | Norbert Marwan (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
Significance for a recurrence based transition analysis | |
12:50 - 14:30 | Lunch break |
14:30 - 15:15 | Raúl Toral (IFISC) |
Stability analysis of stochastic differential equations | |
15:15 - 15:45 | Miguel Angel Rodríguez (Instituto de Física de Cantabria) |
Predictability of 1/f processes | |
15:45 - 16:35 | Coffee break |
16:35 - 17:20 | Edward Ott (University of Maryland) |
Estimating the state of large spatiotemporally chaotic systems | |
17:20 - 18:00 |
Transfer to Palma Center, Plaza de Espanya |
18:00 - 20:30 |
Guided City Walk |
20:30 |
Conference Dinner |
Tuesday, November 11 | |
09:15 - 10:00 | Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich) |
Copulas and tail risks, especially in finance | |
10:00 - 10:45 | Esteban Moro (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
Extreme events in human activities: Impact on information spreading in social networks | |
10:45 - 11:15 | Coffee break |
11:15 - 12:00 | Juan M. López (Instituto de Física de Cantabria) |
Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics in strongly correlated systems | |
12:00 - 12:30 | Géza Györgyi (Eötvös University) |
Renormalization and finite size correction in extreme statistics | |
12:30 - 12:50 | Sarah Hallerberg (Instituto de Física de Cantabria) |
Predictability of extreme events | |
12:50 - 14:30 | Lunch break |
14:30 - 15:15 | Sorin Solomon (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
In very risky environments, altruists are favored by natural selection | |
15:15 - 15:45 | Nadav Shnerb (Bar-Ilan University) |
From companies to colonies: The origin of Pareto-like distributions in ecosystems | |
15:45 - 16:05 | Nicholas Moloney (University of Calgary) |
Extreme value statistics in long-range correlated signals | |
16:05 - 16:35 | Coffee break |
16:35 - 16:55 | Jochen Bröcker (MPIPKS) |
Performance assessment of probabilistic forecasts | |
17:00 - 18:00 |
Short oral poster presentations |
(2-3 min. per poster) | |
18:00 - 22:00 |
Poster session |
(including cold buffet and drinks) | |
Wednesday, November 12 | |
09:15 - 10:00 | Leonard Smith (London School of Economics & Political Science) |
Predicting extremes, extreme predictions, and the role of the probability calculus in climate prediction | |
10:00 - 10:45 | Víctor Homar (Universitat de les Illes Balears) |
Extreme weather events: Phenomena and forecasting techniques | |
10:45 - 11:15 | Coffee break |
11:15 - 12:00 | Neil Johnson (University of Miami) |
Dynamical communities as a source of extreme events | |
12:00 - 12:30 | Jens Christian Claussen (Lübeck University) |
How extinction and coexistence depend on the population size: Cyclic coevolutionary dynamics in finite populations | |
12:30 - 12:50 | M. Ángeles Serrano (IFISC) |
A generative model of text documents capturing bursts and similarity | |
12:50 - 14:00 | Lunch break |
14:15 - 18:00 |
Excursion to "La Granja" at Esporles |
18:30 - 21:00 |
Reception at Bellver Castle |
Thursday, November 13 | |
09:15 - 10:00 | Bruce Malamud (King's College London) |
Statistical distributions of wildfires and landslides: Implications for risk, erosion, and ecology | |
10:00 - 10:45 | José M. Gutiérrez (Instituto de Física de Cantabria) |
Extremes in climate prediction | |
10:45 - 11:15 | Coffee break |
11:15 - 12:00 | Katie Coughlin (Risk Management Solutions) |
Estimating interannual hurricane rates | |
12:00 - 12:30 | Cristina Primo Ramos (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) |
Verification of extreme events in weather forecasting | |
12:30 - 12:50 | Anja Garber (MPIPKS) |
Finite-size effects on extreme events in the BTW model | |
12:50 - 14:30 | Lunch break |
14:30 - 15:15 | Joachim Peinke (University Oldenburg) |
Stochastic analysis as a tool for prediction of extreme events and their clustering | |
15:15 - 15:45 | Jordi Ortín (Universitat de Barcelona) |
Avalanche dynamics of imbibition fronts | |
15:45 - 16:05 | Anja Riegert (MPIPKS) |
Stochastic modeling of fast Hamiltonian chaos | |
16:05 - 16:35 | Coffee break |
16:35 - 16:55 | Bartlomiej Dybiec (Jagellonian University) |
SIR model of epidemics spread with accumulated exposition | |
16:55 - 17:15 | Elena Surovyatkina (Space Research Institute Moscow) |
Nonlinear origin of heart's vulnerability | |
17:15 | Discussion |
around 19:00 | Dinner |
(served at the lunch premises) | |
Friday, November 14 | |
09:15 - 10:00 | Jürgen Kurths (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) |
Complex networks and climate variations | |
10:00 - 10:45 | Alvaro Corral (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Barcelona) |
Extreme-event recurrence as ordinary events in natural hazards and word usage | |
10:45 - 11:20 | Coffee break |
11:20 - 11:50 | Janusz Holyst (Warsaw University of Technology) |
Risk evaluation with enhanced covariance matrix and extreme fluctuations of stock price dynamics | |
11:50 - 12:20 | Oreste Piro (IFISC) |
Can statistical criticality be linked with dynamical criticality | |
12:30 - 14:30 | Lunch |
End of the workshop | |
Last update: November 12, 2008