Preliminary Program

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Monday, November 10
Tuesday, November 11
Wednesday, November 12
Thursday, November 13
Friday, November 14



Monday, November 10  
   
starting 08:30 Registration
   
09:30 - 10:00 Opening
   
10:00 - 10:45 Michael Ghil (ENS Paris & University of California, Los Angeles)
  Beyond statistics: Modeling the dynamics of extreme events
   
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee break
   
11:15 - 12:00 Sidney Redner (Boston University)
  The best, the hottest, and the luckiest: A statistical tale of extremes
   
12:00 - 12:30 Ulrike Feudel (University Oldenburg)
  Resilience of ecological systems
   
12:30 - 12:50 Norbert Marwan (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
  Significance for a recurrence based transition analysis
   
12:50 - 14:30 Lunch break
   
14:30 - 15:15 Raúl Toral (IFISC)
  Stability analysis of stochastic differential equations
   
15:15 - 15:45 Miguel Angel Rodríguez (Instituto de Física de Cantabria)
  Predictability of 1/f processes
   
15:45 - 16:35 Coffee break
   
16:35 - 17:20 Edward Ott (University of Maryland)
  Estimating the state of large spatiotemporally chaotic systems
   
17:20 - 18:00
Transfer to Palma Center, Plaza de Espanya
   
18:00 - 20:30
Guided City Walk
   
20:30
Conference Dinner
   
   
Tuesday, November 11  
   
09:15 - 10:00 Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich)
  Copulas and tail risks, especially in finance
   
10:00 - 10:45 Esteban Moro (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
  Extreme events in human activities: Impact on information spreading in social networks
   
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee break
   
11:15 - 12:00 Juan M. López (Instituto de Física de Cantabria)
  Universal fluctuations and extreme statistics in strongly correlated systems
   
12:00 - 12:30 Géza Györgyi (Eötvös University)
  Renormalization and finite size correction in extreme statistics
   
12:30 - 12:50 Sarah Hallerberg (Instituto de Física de Cantabria)
  Predictability of extreme events
   
12:50 - 14:30 Lunch break
   
14:30 - 15:15 Sorin Solomon (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
  In very risky environments, altruists are favored by natural selection
   
15:15 - 15:45 Nadav Shnerb (Bar-Ilan University)
  From companies to colonies: The origin of Pareto-like distributions in ecosystems
   
15:45 - 16:05 Nicholas Moloney (University of Calgary)
  Extreme value statistics in long-range correlated signals
   
16:05 - 16:35 Coffee break
   
16:35 - 16:55 Jochen Bröcker (MPIPKS)
  Performance assessment of probabilistic forecasts
   
17:00 - 18:00
Short oral poster presentations
  (2-3 min. per poster)
   
18:00 - 22:00
Poster session
  (including cold buffet and drinks)
   
   
Wednesday, November 12  
   
09:15 - 10:00 Leonard Smith (London School of Economics & Political Science)
  Predicting extremes, extreme predictions, and the role of the probability calculus in climate prediction
   
10:00 - 10:45 Víctor Homar (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
  Extreme weather events: Phenomena and forecasting techniques
   
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee break
   
11:15 - 12:00 Neil Johnson (University of Miami)
  Dynamical communities as a source of extreme events
   
12:00 - 12:30 Jens Christian Claussen (Lübeck University)
  How extinction and coexistence depend on the population size: Cyclic coevolutionary dynamics in finite populations
   
12:30 - 12:50 M. Ángeles Serrano (IFISC)
  A generative model of text documents capturing bursts and similarity
   
12:50 - 14:00 Lunch break
   
14:15 - 18:00
Excursion to "La Granja" at Esporles
   
18:30 - 21:00
Reception at Bellver Castle
   
   
Thursday, November 13  
   
09:15 - 10:00 Bruce Malamud (King's College London)
  Statistical distributions of wildfires and landslides: Implications for risk, erosion, and ecology
   
10:00 - 10:45 José M. Gutiérrez (Instituto de Física de Cantabria)
  Extremes in climate prediction
   
10:45 - 11:15 Coffee break
   
11:15 - 12:00 Katie Coughlin (Risk Management Solutions)
  Estimating interannual hurricane rates
   
12:00 - 12:30 Cristina Primo Ramos (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
  Verification of extreme events in weather forecasting
   
12:30 - 12:50 Anja Garber (MPIPKS)
  Finite-size effects on extreme events in the BTW model
   
12:50 - 14:30 Lunch break
   
14:30 - 15:15 Joachim Peinke (University Oldenburg)
  Stochastic analysis as a tool for prediction of extreme events and their clustering
   
15:15 - 15:45 Jordi Ortín (Universitat de Barcelona)
  Avalanche dynamics of imbibition fronts
   
15:45 - 16:05 Anja Riegert (MPIPKS)
  Stochastic modeling of fast Hamiltonian chaos
   
16:05 - 16:35 Coffee break
   
16:35 - 16:55 Bartlomiej Dybiec (Jagellonian University)
  SIR model of epidemics spread with accumulated exposition
   
16:55 - 17:15 Elena Surovyatkina (Space Research Institute Moscow)
  Nonlinear origin of heart's vulnerability
   
17:15 Discussion
   
around 19:00 Dinner
  (served at the lunch premises)
   
   
Friday, November 14  
   
09:15 - 10:00 Jürgen Kurths (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
  Complex networks and climate variations
   
10:00 - 10:45 Alvaro Corral (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Barcelona)
  Extreme-event recurrence as ordinary events in natural hazards and word usage
   
10:45 - 11:20 Coffee break
   
11:20 - 11:50 Janusz Holyst (Warsaw University of Technology)
  Risk evaluation with enhanced covariance matrix and extreme fluctuations of stock price dynamics
   
11:50 - 12:20 Oreste Piro (IFISC)
  Can statistical criticality be linked with dynamical criticality
   
12:30 - 14:30 Lunch
   
  End of the workshop
   


Last update: November 12, 2008