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Dynamics and Statistics in Weather and Climate

Focus Workshop - 29 - 31 July 2009

Scientific coordinators:

Jochen Bröcker (MPI PKS Dresden)
Klaus Fraedrich (Universität Hamburg)
Holger Kantz (MPI PKS Dresden)

Organisation:

Claudia Poenisch (MPI für Physik komplexer Systeme, Dresden, Germany)

Although it is a commonplace that all models contain errors, the usefulness of state of the art atmospheric and ocean models is not disputed. Bearing the complexity of the climate system in mind though, it is evident that a model plus some assimilated input data will never constitute a perfect representation of reality. Weather forecasts are invaluable information sources, but are known to exhibit shortcomings; Long term climate projections, although giving important indications, need to be downscaled onto a regional level to be really useful. The development of "better" models therefore continues on a large scale, involving ever finer resolutions and more subsystems. But in addition to these efforts, our principle understanding of model accuracy needs to be developed further, which is the central aim of this workshop. The discussion therefore should cover (but not be limited to) identification of the current state of the system, or data assimilation (which will become more difficult for increasingly complex models), breading of initial condition ensembles, scoring rules, model validation, interpretation of statistical multi-model forecasts, and coping with unresolved scales. To summarize, the aim of this workshop is to improve our understanding of how to cope with inaccurate models -- an understanding we are unlikely to gain just by increasing the number of degrees of freedom in our models.


Confirmed invited speakers:

E. Becker (Kühlungsborn)
G. C. Craig (Oberpfaffenhofen)
P. D. Ditlevsen (Copenhagen)
P. Friederichs (Bonn)
M. Ghil (Paris)
K. Judd (Perth)
R. Kleeman (New York)
J. Kurths (Potsdam)
M. Latif (Kiel)
Z. Liu (Madison)
V. Lucarini (Bologna)
C. Penland (Washington)
L. A. Smith (Oxford)
D. Stainforth (Exeter)
A. Sutera (Rome)
O. Talagrand (Paris)
S. Theis (Offenbach)
P. van Leeuwen (Utrecht)
S. Vannitsem (Brussels)
A. Weisheimer (Reading)
S. Yip (Exeter)


Applications are welcome and should be made by using the application form on the conference web page (please see URL below). The number of attendees is limited. The registration fee for the focus workshop is 100 Euro and should be paid by all participants. Costs for accommodation and meals will be covered by the Max Planck Institute. Limited funding is available to partially cover travel expenses. Please note that childcare is available upon request.

Deadline for registration is April 30, 2009.



For further information please e-mail to: dswc09mpipks-dresden.mpg.de