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The rogue waves are extremely dangerous events that can lead to loss of
cargo and human lives. The extremely high wave recorded at the North Sea based Draupner
platform on 01.01.1995 (the New year wave) provoked the scientific interest in
the research on the freak (rogue) waves. In this presentation we analyze time
series containing records of rogue waves. We show that the distribution of the
maxima of the time series are well described by the Weibull distribution. On the
basis of the obtained distribution we calculate that the probability of the
Draupner wave at the corresponding weather conditions was 2.3 ċ 10-5.
References: E. Heller. Freak ocean waves and refraction of Gaussian seas. p.p. 189-201 in S. Albeveiro, V. Jentsch, H. Kantz. Extreme Events in Nature and Society. Springer, Berlin (2006). |