• theoretical aspects of complex dynamics, nonlinear stochastic processes.
  • the relationship between dynamics and statistical physics, nonequilibrium statistical physics and fluctuation theorems
    extreme events
  • novel concepts for time series analysis, essentially based on the idea of reconstruction of a state space from observations.
    Time series software package TISEAN
  • data analysis, modeling, and prediction in atmospheric physics: ensemble forecasts, skill scores, systematic errors, effects of long range correlations, identification of trends


Recent projects

  • Ultraslow diffusion in the Sinai model (A. Padash et al.)
  • Non-Markovian stochastic model for the prediction of first frost (J. Kassel)
  • CAFE Project ESR5: ENSO and precipitation extremes (X. Hu)
  • CAFE Project ESR6: European heat waves (E. Rouges at ECMWF Reading)
  • Data model for mid-European precipitation time series (K. Polotzek)
  • Scale dependent error growth and strictly finite prediction horizons in weather forecasts (H. Bednar)
  • Oceanic transport and its modeling by fractional Brownian motion (A. Padash, I. Janosi)
  • Network analysis of the sphaera book corpus (M. Zamani with A. Valleriano and his group at MPI History of Science, Berlin)